NEW YORK — A report on manufacturing activity shows the
sector contracted less than expected in June, posting its best showing
since last August and another sign that a recovery may be near.
Manufacturing
sectors overseas also are rebounding a bit, according to new reports,
but other U.S. economic data were mixed. Construction spending fell
more than expected in May, while pending home sales edged up.
The
Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing
executives, said its manufacturing index registered 44.8 in June, up
from 42.8 in May. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a
reading of 44.5.
"A slow recovery for manufacturing is forming," said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM's manufacturing business survey committee.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction. June's reading marks the 17th straight month of deterioration in manufacturing.
Still,
there is an encouraging pattern in recent ISM manufacturing reports.
This is the second straight month that the index has been above 41.2
after seven consecutive declines. The ISM says a reading above that
level is consistent with expansion in the overall economy — even though
the manufacturing sector itself is still shrinking.
"This latest
gain suggests the recession may finally have ended at the close of the
second quarter, a mere 19 months after it started," said Capital
Economics' analysts. "However, there is little evidence that this tepid
recovery will turn into anything much stronger."
Other countries'
manufacturing sectors also are recovering. Two reports from China, the
world's third-largest economy, showed small gains in surveys of
manufacturers. Elsewhere, the purchasing managers index from the
16-nation euro zone showed a slower pace of decline in June, and the
equivalent index in Britain hit a 15-month high of 47.
British
manufacturing output rose for the first time since March 2008. Big
Japanese manufacturers reported being slightly more optimistic about
business conditions, but cut capital spending sharply.
While
encouraging, the ISM survey hasn't noted growth in manufacturing since
January 2008. The manufacturing index includes new orders, production,
employment, inventories, prices, and export and import orders. It is
based on a survey of the Tempe, Ariz.-based ISM's members from 18
industries.
On Wall Street, stocks rose after the
better-than-expected ISM manufacturing report. The Dow Jones industrial
average added about 95 points in afternoon trading, and broader indices
also moved higher.
But not all the economic news was as rosy. A
Commerce Department report showed that construction spending fell 0.9
percent in May, nearly double the 0.5 percent economists had expected,
and activity in the past two months was revised lower.
Construction
rose 0.6 percent in April, down from the 0.8 percent increase
originally reported. A March increase of 0.4 percent was replaced with
a decline of the same amount. That left the April gain as the only
increase in the past eight months.
The National Association of
Realtors, meanwhile, said pending home sales rose for a fourth straight
month in May. The index of pending sales, which tracks signed contracts
to purchase previously owned homes, rose 0.1 percent to 90.7, better
than expected.
Housing and autos are two sectors with ongoing
woes, Ore said, while manufacturers connected to the computer,
electronics and petroleum industries might say their tides have turned.
However,
a good sign for all industrial companies was shrinking customer
inventories. Low inventories mean that businesses will need to restock
from manufacturers, prompting new orders and production. The production
index grew to 52.5 in June from 46 in May — the first growth reading
after nine months of decline.
But new orders shrank to 49.2 after
growing in May for the first time in 17 months. Growth in new orders is
a perquisite for ramping up production and hiring.
The panic
caused by the crash in financial markets late last year has finally
worked its way through manufacturing, said Cliff Waldman, economist for
the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an industry trade group.
However,
a strong recovery in manufacturing is being crimped by weakening
economies worldwide and a reluctance by businesses to ramp up capital
spending — which means ongoing job cuts.
"Manufacturing is just not going to be a job producer," Waldman said.
The pace of manufacturing layoffs may have slowed since this winter, but it has not stopped.
Farm
machinery company Deere & Co. said Tuesday that 800 salaried
employees, or 3 percent of its salaried work force, took a voluntary
buyout offer. That's four times as many as the company expected when it
announced the program in April.
In June, Cessna Aircraft Co.,
which makes corporate jets, said it would cut 1,300 jobs by this summer
on top of 6,900 earlier layoffs.